PHP Java C# Perl

PHP seems to be holding steady, or slightly declining. But, Java is waning, as I discussed in Why isn’t PHP the natural successor to Java?. C# seems to be steady and slightly increasing, while Perl is steady and slightly decreasing. So where are those Java programmers going if not PHP? Are they going to Ruby and Ruby on Rails?

Java Ruby Ruby on Rails

It looks like Ruby and Ruby on Rails are tiny fish in Java’s pond. Perhaps those Java developers are going to C# or one of Microsoft’s unsearchable variants. It would be interesting to see the MSN search trends. However, there is one area where Ruby on Rails seems to be doing well:

Struts Ruby on Rails framework

It used to be that most of the PHP frameworks were cloning Struts. Now they clone Rails. There is an increasing interest in frameworks.

There are countries where PHP is more popular. Here is the PHP vs. Java chart for the Netherlands. Right at the end, PHP beats out Java. Search, Derick. Search.

PHP Java

One last Trend. What is trendier that Ajax these days? Certainly not JavaScript.

Javascript AJAX

Notice how Javascript searches are declining while Ajax is ascending. Strangely I would have thought that the interest in AJAX would have created an increase in Javascript searches. It doesn’t look like the total search volume of the two terms together is increasing that much. Looking at the news volume graph is striking. The AJAX press release machine is in full gear. So is AJAX the thing that everyone is talking about, but nobody is doing? Can you say Web 2.0 bubble?

Please use the AJAX enabled comment form below to tell me how wrong I am.

DISCLAIMER: These graphs and conclusions are for entertainment purposes only. Opinions expressed should not be construed as trendy advice. The particulars of any person’s concerns and circumstances should be discussed with a qualified trend spotting practitioner prior to making any decisions.

Web hosting is a (still) highly fragmented marketplace.

Web hosting is fragmented market because it is a commodity product and there are low barriers to entry. I don’t see google overcoming either of these issues. They built their search brand based on having a superior product. I am not sure that google can offer a truly superior product in the hosting space.

with the millions in extra cash that they have lying around, Google can easily acquire even the most premier hosting company and use it as a base to build a business around. Alternatively, Google could simply buy up tons of customers from smaller hosts.

The dot bomb strategy didn’t work in 1999, why would it work now?

The barriers to entry are extremely low

Small companies enter markets where the barriers to entry are low. Large companies try to create barriers to entry.

Arguably, the single most important element in gaining new customers is online advertising

I am sure that time warner makes a bunch of money on advertising for snake oil. that doesn’t mean that they should sell the snake oil.

Web hosting requires tons of servers, data centers, and skilled technical support staff.

I think these are hygienic factors, not necessarily competitive advantages. Apple has lawyers and GM has lawyers, therefore Apple should make cars? Google’s technological innovations have been in using very cheap redundant hardware. I am not sure that this transfers to commodity paid hosting.

Email and Web hosting go hand in hand.

Google is quite new to large scale email. Also, if you paid for the email, why would you accept the advertising? I don’t see the synergy.

Many businesses and consumers will only do business with a brand that they trust.

There are lots of trustworthy brands already in the hosting market.

A google browser makes sense — one more way to show google ads and block competitors ads. I don’t see hosting as a good fit for google. That doesn’t mean they won’t do it. I just don’t think they would do it until they lacked better things to do, things that don’t drift as far from their core business: selling advertising.